Last updated on 19 Jun 2026
Investment Desk is a live record of how market ideas become portfolio decisions.
I use this page to track investment ideas, measure how they perform and analyze how they shape a portfolio. The work runs in two parts: I form the investment views from information I come across, then Souppe analyzes how those ideas behave once they sit together inside a real portfolio - how they interact as a group, respond to changing market regimes and affect the portfolio's structural quality. From there the page follows the full path from idea to structure: how each idea has performed since entry, how it changes the portfolio, where the weaknesses are and which securities could strengthen them. The result is a live record of both judgment and process - not only what I think, but how those ideas behave when placed together, and how human judgment and portfolio intelligence work together to bring better results.
Indexed to 100 at the first entry: the value of the book against the capital put in, so it reads as the return on capital at every point. It eases back when fresh capital funds a new idea (that money starts at break-even) and climbs as prices move. It ends at today's return on capital.
| Ticker | Side | Opened | Shares | Avg Cost | Current | Weight | Holding Return | Std | CVaR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | Long | 22 Aug 2025 | 403.23 | 24.80 | 133.99 | 29.7% | +440.3% | 85.8% | -8.9% |
| ITA | Long | 18 Sep 2025 | 49.30 | 202.84 | 238.99 | 6.5% | +17.8% | 25.6% | -4.9% |
| PAVE | Long | 25 Sep 2025 | 216.97 | 46.09 | 58.56 | 7.0% | +27.1% | 22.2% | -4.8% |
| HWAY | Long | 25 Sep 2025 | 338.46 | 29.55 | 38.89 | 7.2% | +31.6% | 23.4% | n/a |
| SRVR | Long | 26 Sep 2025 | 323.20 | 30.94 | 33.54 | 6.0% | +8.4% | 19.1% | -4.0% |
| DTCR | Long | 26 Sep 2025 | 494.07 | 20.24 | 31.92 | 8.7% | +57.7% | 25.6% | n/a |
| SPY | Long | 30 Sep 2025 | 15.10 | 662.41 | 746.74 | 6.2% | +12.7% | 13.7% | -3.9% |
| AIPO | Long | 1 Oct 2025 | 434.56 | 23.01 | 34.00 | 8.1% | +47.7% | 36.3% | n/a |
| ARGT | Long | 28 Oct 2025 | 112.12 | 89.19 | 97.10 | 6.0% | +8.9% | 29.6% | -5.7% |
| REMX | Long | 25 Nov 2025 | 142.55 | 70.15 | 95.55 | 7.5% | +36.2% | 51.5% | -6.6% |
| SETM | Long | 25 Nov 2025 | 384.75 | 25.99 | 34.14 | 7.2% | +31.4% | 51.9% | n/a |
How to read this: the headline is the return on the capital actually put to work - current value against what was invested - not a time-weighted index. It answers a simple question: if I had funded each idea and held it, how much would the capital have grown.
The assumptions behind these figures:
These results are a record of how the ideas have behaved since entry. They are not advice or a solicitation.
On 21 March 2026, the portfolio was down about 10% from 28 February. Souppe's return attribution showed that broad market pressure explained roughly 3.1 percentage points of the decline, while external forces were supportive, adding about 15.4 percentage points. The weakness was therefore not mainly systematic. It was concentrated in three positions: SETM, REMX and ITA. Together, they accounted for a loss of roughly 22 percentage points. Since the broader external forces around them were supportive, the selloff appears concentrated, specific and potentially excessive.
My working interpretation is that investors may have sold these positions because of geopolitical pressure rather than deteriorating long-term fundamentals. If that pressure normalizes, the selloff may create an opportunity.
Like the people who make them, markets have moods. Portfolio variance is influenced by systematic forces, idiosyncratic events and human psychology.
A portfolio that looks balanced in normal markets may behave very differently during stress or recovery. Souppe analyzes this layer directly. Souppe's risk model estimates the deeper forces affecting a portfolio and surfaces the findings through two views: expected exposure to three market regimes, and eight structural quality dimensions.
Beta is the slope coefficient of a linear regression: for each 1% change in the explanatory variable, the target (our asset's price) is expected to change by beta percent. A market regime beta measures how much the portfolio is expected to move for each 1% move in the broad market, conditional on the current market environment.
The Regime Capture Ratio (RCR) measures how much upside market sensitivity the portfolio captures per unit of downside sensitivity. Above 1.0 is favorable; below 1.0 means the portfolio amplifies losses more than it participates in gains. Our goal is to identify the portfolio's exposure to these regimes, recognize its structural weaknesses, and then tweak its parts and their weights to form a group that is robust to various market conditions.
| Ticker | Stress β | Recovery β | Normal β | RCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC.US | 1.28 | 1.39 | 1.35 | 1.09 |
| ITA.US | 1.09 | 1.12 | 1.07 | 1.03 |
| PAVE.US | 1.28 | 1.28 | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| SRVR.US | 0.80 | 0.65 | 0.75 | 0.82 |
| DTCR.US | 0.79 | 0.65 | 0.70 | 0.82 |
| SPY.US | 1.03 | 1.01 | 1.02 | 0.98 |
| ARGT.US | 1.28 | 0.99 | 1.13 | 0.77 |
| REMX.US | 1.28 | 1.07 | 1.14 | 0.84 |
| SETM.US | 0.95 | 0.68 | 0.79 | 0.72 |
Souppe's model also scores the portfolio across eight structural quality dimensions, quickly revealing any portfolio's weaknesses. The dimensions split into tiers - structural strengths to preserve, solid baselines, areas that are functional but improvable, and the concentrated weak spots that hold the composite score back. The composite is the headline structural score; we use Souppe to find the weak dimension and remedy it.
We use Souppe to analyze the portfolio's structural profile, identify its weak points and improve it step by step. Souppe analyzes how these investment decisions behave as a diversified group and helps reshape the portfolio around that structure.
Improving a portfolio comes down to two decisions: which securities to add, and how to weight the holdings. Adding new positions must be grounded in wisdom - smart investors diversify until they run out of smart ideas. Weighting schemes encode investment philosophy: equal weight treats every position as equally important, risk parity equalizes each position's contribution to overall volatility, and Souppe-weighted gives more weight to securities that better support the portfolio's regime-aware target profile.
Selection and weighting are coupled. The best next security depends on the current portfolio, its weights, and the investor's structural objective. Souppe handles this coupling directly and shows how different construction methods reshape the portfolio's behavior.
Each line is one weighting scheme's structural profile from the Souppe sweep.
| Portfolio | Position Diversity | Diversification Ratio | Sector Diversity | Systematic Coverage | Downside Exposure | Liquidity | Beta Stability | Tail Coherence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Portfolio | 66 | 58 | 69 | 55 | 43 | 92 | 92 | 100 |
| Equal Weight | 90 | 84 | 90 | 64 | 55 | 85 | 91 | 100 |
| Inverse Volatility | 83 | 68 | 84 | 70 | 63 | 88 | 92 | 100 |
| Risk Parity | 84 | 74 | 89 | 71 | 60 | 81 | 90 | 100 |
| Minimum Variance | 54 | 70 | 39 | 61 | 76 | 77 | 93 | 100 |
| Maximum Diversification | 62 | 100 | 82 | 52 | 63 | 86 | 92 | 100 |
| Hrp | 56 | 52 | 69 | 77 | 43 | 77 | 90 | 100 |
| Weighting scheme | Stress β | Recovery β | Normal β | RCR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equal Weight | 0.91 | 0.83 | 0.85 | 0.91 |
| Inverse Volatility | 0.74 | 0.65 | 0.68 | 0.88 |
| Risk Parity | 0.80 | 0.71 | 0.73 | 0.88 |
| Minimum Variance | 0.48 | 0.43 | 0.44 | 0.89 |
| Maximum Diversification | 0.74 | 0.66 | 0.68 | 0.89 |
| Hrp | 1.14 | 0.99 | 1.04 | 0.87 |
Each construction method reshapes the portfolio differently. Some schemes emphasize downside cushioning, while others emphasize balanced diversification and broader structural quality. This is where Souppe shines: it does not force one generic answer, but shows how different construction choices reshape the portfolio's behavior, so the final decision can match the investor's objective.
Investors who want to understand the structure beneath their own portfolios can explore Souppe. Souppe shows the architecture. The next layer is judgment: the ideas, themes and information signals that shaped the portfolio.
These ideas focus on companies and industries where I see a clear need for more investment and a favorable balance of potential return against risk. They are based on information I come across that points to opportunities worth pursuing. Taking on idiosyncratic risk adds concrete wisdom to the system. Results may take time to appear but often materialize in the short to medium term.
Idiosyncratic investing is more suitable for individuals and fast-moving sophisticated investors such as hedge funds, who exploit short-term distortions in the aggregate investor's perception. Institutional investors employ patient capital - they quietly finance the economy and focus on the next sectors that need funding to meet future demand. This is where Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) come in.
| Ticker | Date | Driver | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|
| INTC (US) | 22 Aug 2025 | The US government will invest around $9 billion in Intel to strengthen the American semiconductor industry. We want the US government as a partner: government support creates unique growth opportunities and diminished risk. It is part of a larger process of reinforcing US production capacity and tech leadership, making this a solid turnaround bet. |
Long |
| INTC (US) | 18 Sep 2025 | Nvidia announced it will buy $5 billion worth of Intel shares, a sum equal to about 17% of Nvidia's 2024 net income of about $30 billion. This signals confidence from a key industry peer and strengthens Intel's position within the AI supply chain. It reinforces Intel's strategic importance and adds upside optionality with limited downside. |
Long |
ETFs offer a bridge between the idiosyncrasy of individual assets and the systematic exposure of sectors and industries. They balance adding wisdom and logic into the system. Here are some investment ideas and their rationales. The line between "passive" and "active" investing is drawn by the individual's thinking effort: if you think on a regular basis and act on your thinking, you are an active investor.
| Ticker | Date | Driver | Exposure |
|---|---|---|---|
| ITA (US) | 18 Sep 2025 | With rising global geopolitical tensions, governments are committing larger portions of their budgets to defense and security. Global military expenditure reached a record $2.7 trillion in 2024, up nearly 9.3% year over year. This sustained increase supports the entire defense sector and stabilizes revenues across its key holdings. |
Long |
| ITA (US) | 25 Sep 2025 | NATO's new 5% defense spending goal formalizes military budgets as a structural, long-term component of member economies - more than double the previous 2% goal. It is projected to lift the alliance's annual defense budgets from $1.5 trillion in 2024 to about $4.2 trillion by 2035, a 60% increase. This turns demand for defense into a predictable stream, supporting long-term sector growth. |
Long |
| PAVE (US) | HWAY (US) | 25 Sep 2025 | The US President announced trillions of dollars in capital commitments for foreign direct investment into the US, which stood at $308 billion in 2024. Part of this capital will flow into domestic infrastructure renewal, benefiting companies in construction, materials and logistics. These ETFs provide diversified exposure to the development phase of infrastructure. |
Long |
| SRVR (US) | DTCR (US) | 26 Sep 2025 | Data centers became an investable asset class in the 2010s as cloud and storage demand accelerated. Since 2022, generative AI has driven a new wave of investment in facilities that require far greater power and capital. These products provide access to the data-center infrastructure theme, from real-estate owners and operators to the broader ecosystem of global infrastructure and service providers. Data-center real-estate assets traded at implied cap rates of about 4.4% as at mid-2025, reflecting high valuations with a reasonable yield. |
Long |
| SPY (US) | 30 Sep 2025 | The US publicly traded capital markets remain the world's most reliable savings medium. As long as global economic growth continues and US credit risk stays low, capital inflows will persist, supporting long-term equity appreciation. The large-scale adoption of AI is projected to contribute about 0.6-1.5 percentage points to annual productivity growth, an additional force of long-term support for the S&P 500. |
Long |
| ISF (UK) | VUKE (UK) | 30 Sep 2025 | Rising political and social instability threatens the long-term attractiveness of the UK capital markets. Uncertainty around policy direction and investor confidence increases the risk premium and uncertainty around local equities. |
Avoid |
| AIPO (US) | 1 Oct 2025 | The growing need for AI data centers is driving a parallel surge in energy and infrastructure demand. While data centers are the visible frontend, the less visible backend - power generation, cooling and transmission - requires substantial capital. As AI-focused facilities require 2-3x the power density and capital intensity of traditional ones, this ETF provides exposure to that infrastructure layer. |
Long |
| ARGT (US) | 28 Oct 2025 | In 2023, Javier Milei won Argentina's presidency, vowing to dismantle the failed economic system that had long forced the country to depend on international aid and debt financing. On 27 October 2025, Milei's party won the midterm legislative elections with 40.8% of the vote, demonstrating broad and durable support for his agenda. As Argentine society endures this test, we gain greater confidence in the country's path forward. |
Long |
| REMX (US) | SETM (US) | 25 Nov 2025 | China dominates the rare-earth supply chain at both extraction and processing, but its control is far more decisive in chemical separation (processing), where it holds nearly all global capacity. As demand for technologies that depend on rare-earth elements rises, this processing chokepoint becomes a strategic weakness for the Western bloc. The US and Australia are developing alternative processing hubs, but building scalable capacity takes years. ETFs with exposure to critical minerals, strategic materials and industrial-policy beneficiaries may gain as Western governments and investors direct capital into rare-earth processing capacity. |
Long |
These are short to mid-term indicators that capture emerging shifts in the economic environment, offering an opportunity for ongoing research and refinement.
Since the Second World War, the US dollar's reserve currency status has allowed the US government and private sector to borrow more easily and at lower cost than most others. Debt levels have risen to troubling levels, and net interest is expected to account for about 14% of federal spending in 2026. The US government has begun to act, and its actions send important signals to investors. Some of the most interesting opportunities may come from exposure to areas that strengthen the US economic and strategic position: onshore manufacturing, leadership in AI and space, and defense investment. We should watch the direction of US government policy closely and position accordingly.
AI adoption is beginning to reshape sectoral performance by widening the gap between industries that can use smart automation and those that rely on manual, repetitive data-related tasks. Capital is flowing toward sectors where AI directly enhances productivity - semiconductors, cloud and data infrastructure, finance, healthcare, logistics, advanced manufacturing and energy. Industries built on routine cognitive or labor-intensive work are showing early signs of pressure. Tracking this indicator helps identify where AI is creating new competitive advantages and where structural headwinds are forming.
There is a feeling that the valuations of companies in the AI field, from model developers to infrastructure providers, are far too high relative to what their eventual value might justify. This reflects a common human tendency to exaggerate early potential. FOMO is the basic ingredient for bubbles. AI model development displays winner-take-all dynamics, where expensive models can become obsolete overnight if a rival advances, creating a risky environment. This may help explain why AI companies often invest in each other - a way to stabilize positions and spread risk in a quickly-developing landscape.
The post-Cold War era of uncontested US leadership is giving way to a bipolar system, with the Eastern bloc of China, Russia and others increasingly willing to contest US dominance. This carries deep economic implications: the US accelerates efforts to re-anchor manufacturing at home, protect its technological lead and fund a larger military posture. Over time this tests the US dollar's reserve-currency role. For investors, it may point to a gradual move from frictionless globalization toward bloc-based globalization - clusters of countries organizing trade, standards and capital flows around competing spheres.
The following records systematic investment ideas, built on the slower, longer-term forces shaping societies and economies. By taking on systematic risk, we add logic to the system. These notes evolve over time as logic and data develop. They are not recommendations, but personal observations and ongoing research.
Even before the CHIPS and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, the US government has been reinforcing domestic technology and manufacturing leadership. These large-scale incentives exceed $1 trillion over 10 years. This direction favors industries that combine advanced production capabilities with innovation, supporting long-term reindustrialization.
Climate change and population growth are intensifying global water demand while diminishing supply, particularly across the Middle East and Africa. With global water demand projected to exceed supply by nearly 40% by 2030, scarcity is becoming permanent. Energy, utilities and water-technology firms will require increasing investment to create a steady supply of water.
Governments borrowed heavily in the 2020 COVID emergency, and high debt levels persist (see the US, UK and France). US government debt to GDP stands at 124% (2024). With increasing deficits, the focus is shifting to avoiding financial distress at all costs. The US government is acting to keep value within the country. This drives more aggressive diplomacy and deeper government involvement in the economy, harming globalization and fueling a race to the bottom between countries.
Much of US infrastructure was built largely in the 20th century. Older facilities require higher maintenance costs and possible replacements. The American Society of Civil Engineers estimates a $3.7 trillion funding gap through 2035 to modernize national infrastructure. Together with high national debt, this translates to higher value for private-sector capital providers and construction companies.
Humanity's evolution from the Information Age to the Knowledge Age, driven by artificial intelligence, will require vast investments in energy generation, transport and data centers. Global electricity demand is projected to rise by 75% by 2050, underscoring the need for large-scale energy expansion across advanced and emerging economies.
Artificial intelligence is restructuring value creation by automating routine cognitive work and lifting productivity across the economy. AI is set to generate trillions of dollars in incremental value, driven by investment in computing capacity, data infrastructure and automated workflows. These gains accrue primarily to societies capable of deploying AI at scale and controlling proprietary data. The result is a structural reorganization of society in which economic value increasingly depends on AI-driven systems, requiring major changes in how societies distribute value.
For roughly two decades, most developed societies have faced birth rates well below the 2.1 replacement level. As populations age and the working-age share shrinks, governments that want to preserve living standards face three broad paths: increase immigration, raise birth rates, or invest heavily in robotics and automation. The more societies choose the third path, the stronger and more persistent the structural demand for automation, advanced manufacturing and productivity-enhancing infrastructure.
Throughout history, the safety and well-being of Jewish communities have closely tracked the underlying health of societies. Rising antisemitism or social scapegoating often signals institutional stress, social fragmentation and deteriorating rule of law, while episodes of Jewish exodus typically coincide with broader economic decline as human capital and financial networks weaken. Environments where Jews feel secure and integrated tend to reflect openness, innovation capacity and resilient governance. Tracking these shifts provides an early indicator of long-term structural societal strength or fragility.
Disclaimer: this page and website are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or any other type of professional advice. The analysis presented is based on publicly available information. Readers must conduct their own independent research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. Past investment activity is not indicative of future performance. Consult with a qualified financial advisor before acting on any information presented here.